Since 2016, the steel market is hot, very, the trend of steel prices can also be used to describe the monkey monkey. It is not difficult to find that this year's overall situation has been greatly improved compared to last year. Since the Lantern Festival, Myspic Pu steel rebar absolute price index rose from 1964.62 yuan / ton to the current round of the highest point 3094.49 yuan / ton, this rose about 1130 yuan / ton, up 57.5%. Although steel prices turns up, but as the South China region has attracted much attention in the Guangdong market price is obviously lagging behind in other mainstream market, background in Shaoguan Iron and steel, Xiangtan Steel, steel and Zhuhai, Guangdong steel several major steel mills have teamed up with prices, steel prices in Guangdong get rid of the plight of the early national price depression. But with the spot futures, billet fell "stampede" and Shagang slashed ex factory price and so on, Guangdong steel prices or will go from here?
One, the slow rise and slow down out of the price depression
Since come back after the holiday, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are open the rising mode, although during the callback, but the price is significantly higher. At the same time, we found Guangzhou price trend of lagging behind the other two mainstream market, that in the ups and downs of the billet in the process, the North China timber market to bear the brunt, thunder cover less than potential of the ear rapid decline; and in the midst of obvious geographical advantages of Guangdong market price, although in weakening, but the decline was significantly delayed, leading to this before as price depression of Guangdong return to high. The current market situation, for example, now in Guangzhou area in Shaoguan Iron and steel rebar prices for 2690 yuan / ton, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar prices for 2460 yuan / ton, Beijing River steel rebar prices for 2420 yuan / ton, early strong North South weak pattern change, the Guangdong area of steel prices higher than the North of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, North China, East China region.
Two, is expected to continue to decline in inventory
Ended on May 12, according to the statistics of the Guangzhou building materials warehouse the same caliber inventory data show that at present Guangzhou rebar inventory 38.4 million tons, less than last week 3.8 million tons; wire 17.2 million tons, than last week increased 0.1 million tons; building materials inventory total amount of 55.6 million tons, with last year compared to the same period reduced 28.8 million tons. At the same time, the author found that, from the last five years of inventory data show that the annual 10-11 in Guangzhou area of the inventory to reach the valley value, about 40-45 million tons. So from the current inventory data to see the total inventory although is low, and according to the previous level of the short and medium term inventory will still continued to decline to low in recent years, but due to the current inventory was significantly lower than the level of the same period last year and 5-6 in the south is rain weather dominated, late inventory digestion or will be slowed down.
Three, strong north south south weak Dongcai decline
Referring to the Guangdong steel market, we have to mention the North material South arrival situation. As an important national market input, the North South high-low also makes the north south become logical material. However, due to the pattern of change in the past two years, South North South Dongcai gradually replace the material into the mainstream. Influence of billet pull up sharply, rising prices of timber in North china. Guangdong steel market price is lower than the full East China and North China market at the time, both Dongcai or North South resources were substantially reduced, which the main several major manufacturers - Bin Xin, Xin, Xing Xin, Sande resources delivery volume was significantly lower than the level of the beginning of the year, a rough estimate of March since the total arrival of about 10 million tons, accounting for about 20-30% of the level of normal delivery. And with the recent East China steel prices plummeted, Guangdong steel prices once again return to the higher level, and if this can last for a long period of time, can foresee Dongcai south for the amount will be increased.
Four, summary
In short, early surge is expected to influence World Horticultural Exposition speculation, billet prices and replacing business tax with value-added tax(VAT) cannot do without the relationship. As steel prices rose sharply after the steel profits were continued to enlarge, follow suit to pull up the price of the formation of the bubble in the high steel prices behind the formation of a greater risk. At the same time, the profitability of steel increased significantly after the mills have complex peripheral news, the late supply pressures. And 5-6 in the southern region strong frequent rainfall, and heavy rainfall area superposition effect is obvious and had slightly dull demand will be subject to further curb. And despite the recent Guangdong inventory is low, resources outside the province to the arrival of limited, but with the constant adjustment of the local price, this situation can maintain remains to be seen, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic. In addition, the recent price of steel on the next, making the mentality of the market is more fragile, the operation of the business has become more cautious. In summary, the author is expected from the short and medium term, Guangdong steel prices will present a weak shock pattern.